Resume in the UN work on long-term forecasting - the recommendation of IBMER (Poland) and IESCR (Ukraine) published in 2001
Resume in the UN work on long-term forecasting - the recommendation of IBMER (Poland) and IESCR (Ukraine) published in 2001.
(to repeat at a new level the work of the UN expert group, led by the Nobel Prize winner in economics V. Leontiev, a professor at the New York University and an Honorary Member of the Academy of Economic Sciences and Entrepreneurship of Russia in the 1970s)
The events in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Central Europe again and again force the world community to assess what leads to and can lead in the future to the uncoordinated actions of the political elite of nuclear powers that have long had to work on the plans agreed upon and approved by the national state parliaments. In 2018, we perceive the second decade of development of the United Nations  as something very far off with extremely simplistic ideas about the world economy (A.Brodel's definition). And, it would seem, our modern views should be more difficult. However, to the depth of elaboration of the whole cluster of scenarios of the Future of the world economy and regions that were calculated by a team of researchers led by V. Leontiev, unfortunately, we are still far away (http://www.un.org/ru/documents/decl_conv/conventions/decade2_devstrategy.shtml ). And the problems are only exacerbated and they are also being discussed in FAO, analyzing climate change and pointing out the need for urgent EIGHT ACTIONS on the Places from the management of irrigation systems and drought management, sustainable management of forest and land resources, ensuring the sustainability and efficiency of fisheries and aquaculture, quality planning and budgeting adaptation to climate change (http://www.fao.org/3/c-i6273r.pdf ). By the way, in the period from 2009 to 2016 more than 300 projects and programs of FAO were directly aimed at addressing the problem of adaptation to climate change and mitigating its consequences in various sectors of agriculture. Building on a broad network of climate change professionals, FAO is assisting countries in addressing a wide range of challenges from climate change, from policy development to the introduction of best practices and capacity development. But all developing countries work and ask for help, but take into account the activity of neighbors, and, in general, did the world tend to learn or not? And how to take them into account, even if a generalized forecast of development and a working macroeconomic model for the entire world economy is not developed today? Everything at the macro level ended in 2000 (the last one according to the Leontief model) and the countries began to implement the agreed Millennium Goals (after the UN summit in 2000), reporting on most of the tasks set in 2015. And how to proceed? To engage in state construction without taking into account each other's interests and not coordinating their on-farm activities? Which of these results is not difficult to predict. If the production of steel in India state plans to increase to 2020 to 110 million tons. (almost threefold as compared with 2005), and thanks to the state support of small enterprises, more than 24 million (and not counting self-employed) work, producing 40% of gross industrial production, which turned into large exporters. Where and how will their products come true?! Has anyone compiled an approximate trade balance, are there any correct dependencies, or are they not needed yet and will we cheerfully go to the crises of overproduction? With this attitude, one can expect an expansion of the geography of local military conflict, as the most obvious response to managerial laziness and inaction, when conflicts in Syria and the Donbas seem "flowers", especially when tank formations will fight. and they will be stopped by shells with uranium cores (this technique is actively manufactured and sold already by China). And real, thinking and responsible leaders are struggling with such stagnation in economic-ecological and social studies. So Nursultan Nazarbayev in his monograph "The strategy of radical renewal of the global community and the partnership of civilizations" gave his vision of reaching a new level of interrelations of the entire world community. And the participants of the round table meeting at the 64th session of the UN General Assembly "The future of civilizations and the strategy of civilizational partnership" organized by the International Institute Pitirim Sorokin-Nikolay Kondratyev (Russia) and the National Science and Technology Holding "Parasat" (Kazakhstan) with the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Affairs of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations, the Permanent Mission of the Republic of Kazakhstan at the United Nations discussed the consolidated part of the Global Forecast for the period up to 2050 "The Future of Civilizations and the Strategy of Civilizational Partnership" developed by scientists from Russia and Kazakhstan with the participation of scientists from other UN member countries, and were greeted by the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations Vitaly Churkin, Permanent Representative of the Republic of Kazakhstan at the UN Byrganym Aitimova, UN Under-Secretary-General Sha Tsykun, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Kazakhstan In the United States Erlan Idrisova, reports of the President of the International Institute Pitirim Sorokin-Nikolai Kondratiev Yuri Yakovets, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the National Science and Technology Complex "Parasat" Nuraly Bekturganov, Director of the Institute of Economic Strategies Boris Kuzyk, Chairman of the Council for the Study of Productive Forces Alexander Granberg, speech by Professor of the Russian Academy of Public Administration under the President Russian Federation Anatoly Spitsyn, President of the International Academy for Future Research Alexander Ageyev, Professor eyrutskogo University Suhail Farah, associate professor of Dnipropetrovsk University of Economics and Law Dmitry Chistilina, familiarized with the book Nursultan Nazarbayev. And they supported, in our opinion, the most promising and necessary proposal today - on enhancing UNESCO's role in uniting the efforts of scientists to periodically develop, adjust and prolong long-term global forecasts and the role of UNDP in coordinating the preparation and implementation of long-term strategies and global programs on nodal problems implementation of a long-term strategy. By the way, back in October 2006. at a round table meeting in the Russian representation to the United Nations dedicated to the 100th anniversary of the birth of Nobel Prize winner in economics Wasily Leontief, Russian scientists proposed to resume work on long-term forecasting within the UN. This proposal was then supported by Minister of Foreign Affairs S.V. Lavrov and President of the Republic of Kazakhstan N.A. Nazarbayev.
1. Predictive indicators for the implementation of the Strategy for the Development of the Donetsk Region for the Period to 2020 from the Position of the International Development Strategy /Memory of the First Vice President - the Chief Scientific Secretary of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Anatoly Petrovich Shpak DEDICATED
mentation of the Strategy for the development of the Donetsk region for the period up to 2020, taking into account the experience of the work of expert groups led by the winners of the Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics Wasily Leontief, Honorary Member of the Academy of Economic Sciences and Entrepreneurship of Russia and the Director Institute for Economic Analysis at New York University (UN assignment) and Jan Tinberger, Director of the Central Planning Bureau of the Government of the Netherlands, on the theory of stabilization policies and long-term economic planning (the task of the Club of Rome), and also based on the general approach to the interpretation of social information, we tried to use the research data of the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine conducted by the academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine E. Libanova, economic and socio-cultural studies (assignee of DENMC of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and DFC) and Donetsk University of Economics and Law, the results of which allow changing view of the consideration of the projected indicators, evaluating the effectiveness of implementing innovative projects.)
2. Branch of the NAS of Ukraine in the Donbass - an element of the system of social and status incentives in Eastern Europe
(The article substantiates the basic conceptual principles of the work of the Department for Socio-Economic Analysis and Promotion of Investment Projects of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, which is being re-established in the Donetsk region, which will be the leading link in the system of social and status incentives implementing the law of labor preservation in practice in Eastern Europe.)
Published in the journal "Modern Science: Actual Problems and Ways of Solving them" No. 5 (27)
(3) Social and legal modeling of complex social systems (from state "lawlessness" to business law)
(Reconstruction of the Department for Socio-Economic Analysis and Promotion of Investment Projects of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in the Donetsk region strives to implement in 2015. Given the real opportunities (letter of 05/01/2016 № 226 / 8-15 signed by Vladimir Pavlovich Gorbulin, First Vice- President of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine), we carry out the DECISION (26 / 3-226 / 8-15-2016) of the Presidium of the Azov Department of the Academy of ES&E of 26.01.2016 and republish the most interesting preprints of the academic reports of the scientists of the Priazov region. -We hope that the study "Socio-legal modeling of complex social systems (from state "lawlessness" to business law) "(1997) You will be interested.)
The Scientific Council of the Institute of Economic and Socio-Cultural Research
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